Important dates:
(blue dashed lines) delineating mask mandate / advice changes for “fully-vaccinated individuals”:
(purple lines) denoting July 4 holiday
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 27 2021 | 11739 | 53615 | 426 | 111 | 52 | 72 |
| July 28 2021 | 11754 | 53656 | 425 | 110 | 65 | 80 |
| July 29 2021 | 11771 | 53727 | 425 | 110 | 82 | 94 |
| July 30 2021 | 11792 | 53783 | 424 | 110 | 97 | 110 |
| July 31 2021 | 11803 | 53841 | 425 | 110 | 100 | 116 |
| August 01 2021 | 11826 | 53892 | 425 | 110 | 117 | 137 |
| August 02 2021 | 11826 | 53932 | 425 | 110 | 116 | 137 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.7 | 6% | 7 | 0.06% | 7 | 0.06% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 3.0 | 20.7% | 24 | 0.18% | 28 | 0.21% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 3.4 | 19.8% | 23 | 0.11% | 28 | 0.13% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 2.0 | 16.4% | 19 | 0.14% | 21 | 0.15% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 1.7 | 12.1% | 14 | 0.13% | 16 | 0.15% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 1.7 | 10.3% | 12 | 0.1% | 14 | 0.11% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 1.1 | 7.8% | 9 | 0.08% | 11 | 0.1% |
| 70+ | 0 | 1.1 | 6.9% | 8 | 0.08% | 12 | 0.11% |
| All ages | 0 | 14.9 | 100% | 116 | 0.11% | 137 | 0.13% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 27 2021 | 7557 | 31610 | 304 | 96 | 21 | 29 |
| July 28 2021 | 7569 | 31633 | 304 | 96 | 33 | 39 |
| July 29 2021 | 7578 | 31667 | 304 | 96 | 42 | 45 |
| July 30 2021 | 7589 | 31690 | 304 | 96 | 49 | 54 |
| July 31 2021 | 7604 | 31714 | 306 | 96 | 63 | 68 |
| August 01 2021 | 7604 | 31737 | 306 | 96 | 61 | 68 |
| August 02 2021 | 7636 | 31772 | 306 | 96 | 93 | 100 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 1.0 | 7.5% | 7 | 0.09% | 7 | 0.09% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 1.7 | 12.9% | 12 | 0.14% | 13 | 0.15% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 1.7 | 12.9% | 12 | 0.17% | 13 | 0.18% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 1.7 | 14% | 13 | 0.15% | 15 | 0.18% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 1.4 | 10.8% | 10 | 0.13% | 11 | 0.14% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 1.0 | 8.6% | 8 | 0.08% | 9 | 0.09% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 2.1 | 16.1% | 15 | 0.18% | 16 | 0.19% |
| 70+ | 7 | 2.3 | 17.2% | 16 | 0.22% | 16 | 0.22% |
| All ages | 32 | 13.0 | 100% | 93 | 0.14% | 100 | 0.15% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 27 2021 | 5909 | 21291 | 286 | 85 | 6 | 8 |
| July 28 2021 | 5910 | 21310 | 286 | 85 | 7 | 8 |
| July 29 2021 | 5914 | 21326 | 286 | 85 | 10 | 11 |
| July 30 2021 | 5919 | 21346 | 287 | 85 | 14 | 16 |
| July 31 2021 | 5921 | 21362 | 287 | 85 | 16 | 18 |
| August 01 2021 | 5925 | 21372 | 287 | 85 | 19 | 22 |
| August 02 2021 | 5931 | 21379 | 287 | 85 | 25 | 27 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.1 | 4% | 1 | 0.02% | 1 | 0.02% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 1 | 0.02% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 0.7 | 20% | 5 | 0.11% | 5 | 0.11% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 0.7 | 24% | 6 | 0.11% | 6 | 0.11% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.4 | 12% | 3 | 0.06% | 2 | 0.04% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.1 | 12% | 3 | 0.04% | 5 | 0.07% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 0.4 | 12% | 3 | 0.05% | 3 | 0.05% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.6 | 16% | 4 | 0.06% | 4 | 0.06% |
| All ages | 6 | 3.1 | 100% | 25 | 0.06% | 27 | 0.06% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 27 2021 | 12806 | 60816 | 467 | 89 | 44 | 53 |
| July 28 2021 | 12816 | 60902 | 467 | 90 | 49 | 61 |
| July 29 2021 | 12827 | 60971 | 468 | 91 | 59 | 71 |
| July 30 2021 | 12843 | 61041 | 469 | 91 | 70 | 82 |
| July 31 2021 | 12862 | 61096 | 469 | 91 | 84 | 100 |
| August 01 2021 | 12872 | 61159 | 470 | 91 | 88 | 105 |
| August 02 2021 | 12879 | 61199 | 470 | 91 | 92 | 111 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.6 | 5.4% | 5 | 0.04% | 6 | 0.05% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 2.7 | 23.9% | 22 | 0.13% | 26 | 0.16% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 1.7 | 14.1% | 13 | 0.06% | 18 | 0.08% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 2.4 | 22.8% | 21 | 0.15% | 23 | 0.17% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 1.1 | 8.7% | 8 | 0.06% | 14 | 0.1% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 0.9 | 7.6% | 7 | 0.05% | 7 | 0.05% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 1.0 | 8.7% | 8 | 0.06% | 9 | 0.06% |
| 70+ | 1 | 1.0 | 8.7% | 8 | 0.06% | 8 | 0.06% |
| All ages | 7 | 11.4 | 100% | 92 | 0.08% | 111 | 0.09% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 27 2021 | 45794 | 367759 | 1635 | 316 | 323 | 385 |
| July 28 2021 | 45852 | 368118 | 1640 | 317 | 365 | 438 |
| July 29 2021 | 45938 | 368503 | 1643 | 317 | 436 | 501 |
| July 30 2021 | 46018 | 368889 | 1647 | 317 | 490 | 561 |
| July 31 2021 | 46098 | 369346 | 1649 | 317 | 548 | 627 |
| August 01 2021 | 46165 | 369839 | 1649 | 317 | 575 | 678 |
| August 02 2021 | 46220 | 370168 | 1652 | 317 | 582 | 718 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 4.6 | 7.2% | 42 | 0.07% | 52 | 0.09% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 5.4 | 9.6% | 56 | 0.08% | 85 | 0.12% |
| 20-29 | 21 | 19.4 | 28.7% | 167 | 0.16% | 193 | 0.19% |
| 30-39 | 8 | 13.6 | 21% | 122 | 0.16% | 144 | 0.19% |
| 40-49 | 6 | 8.7 | 12.2% | 71 | 0.11% | 91 | 0.14% |
| 50-59 | 9 | 6.7 | 9.8% | 57 | 0.09% | 70 | 0.11% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 3.4 | 5.8% | 34 | 0.06% | 41 | 0.07% |
| 70+ | 4 | 4.3 | 5.7% | 33 | 0.07% | 42 | 0.09% |
| All ages | 55 | 66.1 | 100% | 582 | 0.11% | 718 | 0.13% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 27 2021 | 618298 | 3020000 | 33084 | 7340 | 3531 | 4241 |
| July 28 2021 | 619040 | 3023161 | 33134 | 7433 | 4219 | 4797 |
| July 29 2021 | 619921 | 3026293 | 33189 | 7436 | 4930 | 5508 |
| July 30 2021 | 620948 | 3029418 | 33234 | 7439 | 5570 | 6351 |
| July 31 2021 | 621799 | 3032567 | 33277 | 7443 | 6060 | 7032 |
| August 01 2021 | 622424 | 3035556 | 33300 | 7443 | 6326 | 7603 |
| August 02 2021 | 622867 | 3037577 | 33328 | 7443 | 6364 | 7876 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 28 | 60.1 | 7.8% | 497 | 0.08% | 617 | 0.1% |
| 10-19 | 39 | 94.6 | 12.3% | 780 | 0.1% | 988 | 0.13% |
| 20-29 | 121 | 189.1 | 23.8% | 1513 | 0.2% | 1776 | 0.23% |
| 30-39 | 77 | 140.3 | 18.2% | 1159 | 0.15% | 1434 | 0.19% |
| 40-49 | 58 | 108.0 | 13.5% | 861 | 0.12% | 1101 | 0.16% |
| 50-59 | 47 | 86.4 | 10.8% | 687 | 0.08% | 857 | 0.11% |
| 60-69 | 38 | 56.4 | 7.2% | 461 | 0.06% | 593 | 0.08% |
| 70+ | 35 | 50.0 | 6.4% | 406 | 0.06% | 510 | 0.08% |
| All ages | 443 | 785.0 | 100% | 6364 | 0.11% | 7876 | 0.14% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.1 | 20.6 | 13.4 | 14.9 | 4.6 | 22.6% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15.5 | 13 | 1.4 | 34% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 16.8% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.4 | 15.7 | 8.5 | 11.4 | 4 | 15.4% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.1 | 12 | 18.6 | 66.1 | 21.9 | 14.8% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.5 | 13.1 | 23.5 | 785 | 240.7 | 21.8% |
Important Resources:
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.7 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.69 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-08-23 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 6678"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges